" A New World Order? - China Today and Our Response

China still a Developing Nation

Is China being used as a scapegoat by countries which are unwilling to make significant cuts in their greenhouse gas emissions?

Fr Sean McDonagh SSC

For a number of years the United States and other countries such as Canada, Russia and more recently Japan, have stated that they are unwilling to sign any binding treaty to significantly reduce their greenhouse gas emissions unless China does the same. In support of their position, these countries point to the fact that China is now the number one emitter of greenhouse gases in the world. In 2005, its greenhouse gas emissions reached 7,232 megatonnes of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.

Carbon Emissions between 1850 and 2009
At first glance this argument looks plausible enough. However, it overlooks some very important data on a number of fronts, which undermine the validity of the argument and upholds the position of the UN Framework Convention for Climate Change (UNFCCC) which states that countries have common but differentiate responsibilities in solving climate change. Any equitable approach to lowering carbon emissions global must first examine the historical pattern of greenhouses gases releases into the atmosphere.

Equity in determining the Right to Emit CO2

In a recent paper Martin Khor, the Executive Director of South Centre, has calculated that, in the period between 1850 and 2009, about 1,214 Gigatons of CO2 was released into the atmosphere. Of this amount, Annex 1 countries (rich countries many of which signed up to the Kyoto Protocol in 1997) were responsible for 878 Gigatons. If one set out to determine what a fair share of the right to emit greenhouses gases during that period, based on their population as a percentage of the global population, it would amount to 336 Gigatons or 28% of the total amount. In fact, Annex 1 countries have overshot their fair amount by a massive 568 Gigatons.

The scientific consensus is now adamant that, if we wish to keep the average global temperature below 2 degrees Celsius, we can only emit 750 Gigatons of carbon (equivalent) into the atmosphere between now and 2050. In the light of the historic carbon debt, how should these allocations be made? Given that Annex 1 countries only comprise 16% of the world’s population, the equitable allocation for these countries should be 120 Gigatons. But since there is a debt overhang of 568 gigatons, their fair share ought to be a negative budget of 448 Gigatons. According to Khor, “to fulfil the environmental goal of a global cut to 50% to 85%, it is clear that developed countries will have to go into the territory of “negative emissions”, in order that the developing countries will have a decent level of “development space” sufficient to cushion their path to low-emissions growth.”

A second consideration which needs to be looked at seriously is the fact that China, during the past three decades, has become the work shop of the world. It is manufacturing many of the consumer goods which benefits people in Europe, the US and elsewhere by providing a plethora of gadgets at a very low cost. Both the computer which I am using to write this article, and the memory stick which I am using the save the text, have been manufactured in China. Should China alone be saddled with accounting for these greenhouses involved in manufacturing these goods, or should the burden be shared by those people and countries which benefit from this low cost manufacturing? "A New World Order? - China Today and Our Response".